Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Affordability is Key

This article, "Affordability is Key" by Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist explains why the housing market continues to improve despite the economic recession.

"The U.S. economy has entered a recession and will contract for the next three quarters. The recovery, beginning in the second half of 2009, will be tepid. The unemployment rate will peak at 6.7 percent by mid next year before steadily heading down.

Despite these challenging economic times, existing home sales will be rising. Why? The answer, in a word: affordability. Currently, the most important factor driving home sales is affordability. With home prices falling in many parts of the country and mortgage rates still near historic lows, affordability conditions have markedly improved. Even with rising unemployment, nearly 93 percent of households will have jobs. These 93 percent of the working households (rather than 95 percent during good economic times) respond to home buying incentives. Measures such as the recently enacted first-time homebuyer tax credit and a larger number of mortgage loans that qualify for purchase by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and through the FHA program will further bring homebuyers to the marketplace.

I say this because we have history as a lesson. Back in the prior recession (2001-2003) the economy shed nearly 2 million net jobs. Even during those years, existing-home sales rose from 5.2 million to 6.2 million just as jobs were being cut. New home sales, likewise rose from 900,000 to 1.1 million. Mortgage rates were falling. Housing affordability increased. While those 2 million job cuts were painful, the economy still had 130 million job holders. And given the right incentives, they purchased homes."

Read the entire story here: http://www.realtor.org/research/reinsights/forecast

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